Donald Trump has won the US presidency once again, and this victory also puts some of the spotlight on Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long been one of the most vocal supporters of the Republican candidate, and has was quick to express his delight after his victory. The fondness has been mutual, as Trump noted the support of Orbán multiple times on the campaign trail, and also praised his leadership style and conservative policies. Based on the mutual support, one could expect that the current rocky relationship between Hungary and the US will radically change after the inauguration, but the picture is more complicated than it seems at first glance.

It is true that Trump and Orbán have been ideological allies for a while now, and Fidesz has created a strong bond with certain elements of the Republican Party and its surrogates over the past decade. Orbán could become a point of reference for certain policies the Trump administration may pursue, and he might also be a semi-regular guest of the President. The US Ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman, who has been a figurehead of the tension between the American and Hungarian governments, will probably be replaced by a diplomat who will not seek public conflict. It is also possible that Trump will endorse Orbán during the 2026 Hungarian election, a campaign that is expected to be hard-fought between Fidesz and Tisza.

On the other hand, Trump’s foreign policy in general is anything but ideological. His aim is to try to make the best possible deals for America with anyone, regardless of their ideological orientation. His pragmatic but hard approach means that no matter how close he and Orbán are ideologically, the relationship between the two countries will be determined by the geopolitical situation. Should Trump initiate a trade war with the EU, Hungary would be affected, and Orbán’s attempts at strengthening relations with China would also not be aligned with Trump’s foreign policy. These could cause the tension between Hungary and the US to remain high, even if on a symbolic level, the two countries would get along well.

Furthermore, while the Orbán has carved out an outsized ideological position for himself in Europe, Hungary remains a relatively small country. Trump likes to make deals with larger countries if possible, and policies towards smaller nations are generally not made by him personally. Even during his previous years in office, he preferred to deal with leaders of larger countries. For example, he was negotiating with Emmanuel Macron frequently, and the French President was among the first to call and discuss foreign policy with Trump after his victory as well. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni could also be a potential negotiator-in-chief for Europe, as she is ideologically close to Trump and leads a larger country herself.

All in all, while Trump is a close ideological ally of Orbán, and that will probably ease most of the surface-level tension between the US and Hungary, Trump’s pragmatic approach to international affairs could mean that some conflicts may persist even during the Trump administration, and that Orbán might not be the first or only European contact for the new American President.